Conditions for survival in the manufacturing industry in VUCA era
Satoru Murakami
CEO Goal-System consultants Inc.,
Agenda, an expression of my basic philosophy-4 It should not happen, it will happen
Until last week, I wrote about my thoughts on the consulting service business and the current TOC situation three times. From this time, let's introduce the contents. Recently, I often see the word "VUCA" in newspapers and magazines. VUCA is an acronym for "Volatility," "Uncertainty," "Complexity," and "Ambiguity," It is the environment that surrounds everything become more complex and it is extremely difficult to predict the future, and it is attracting attention as a keyword that expresses today.
This kind of problem in the area of "uncertainty and unexpected" has been greatly highlighted in the 1990s. We were shocked by the sight we had never seen, as the bubble burst and the collapses and mergers of giant corporations and financial institutions, which had been symbols of stability until now, continued. In the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, the World Trade Center building collapsed, and following the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, the Lehman shock occurred in 2008 and the world was hit by a great earthquake. And finally, we have experienced "disasters" such as the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, "unexpected" earthquakes and tsunamis, and the collapse of the nuclear safety myth.
The "should" that does not happen always happens, this is the teaching of history. About 10 years ago, in the best-selling "Black Swan," Nassim Taleb insists: Just as the common sense that "swans" are all white was overturned by the discovery of black swans in Australia in the 17th century, it deviates from common sense and the situation we take for granted, and is uncertain beyond the scope of prediction. Things happen often. In the first place, "intelligence" is unreliable, and it is more harmful to be too caught up in such common sense, common sense, and beliefs that are nothing more than "beliefs."
The reason is, "Human makes mistakes because he is wise, he doesn't even realize that he's having problems because he's trapped in his beliefs. It's just that, Mr. Tareb points out, and his final word is, "human don't learn what we don't learn naturally."
Mr. Taleb's claim, how should we perceive it in the world of manufacturing? What is clear is that the field is also flooded with "unexpected" and "uncertainty" storms, exposing our work to major changes. In fact, the "manufacturing" management of the manufacturing industry has been a history of fighting various changes, risks and uncertainties.
In this article, we will describe the ideal way of manufacturing management in this VUCA era, from Ford's synchronous production system to Toyota's TPS (TOYOTA Production System), TOC (Theory of Constraint), and the evolution of Operation Management area. While tracing the history, I would like to think about the direction of evolution and innovation in light of today's environmental changes.
The impact of this VUCA on the world of manufacturing is not simple. Each alphabet character have a different impact on the manufacturing site. In order to understand it, it is necessary to carefully consider it while unraveling the history of manufacturing. VUCA is a keyword that expresses today, but it is not just a popular word, but it is actually a condensed element that we have to deal with. The big change is not only in the world of manufacturing, but also in the world of "division of labor" such as large-scale projects and system development, and how to control it is the key to how to respond to this VUCA. It can be said that it determines the outcome of competitive advantage.
"Human don't learn what we don't learn naturally"
Mr. Taleb's words seem to me especially to the consultants, let's take a look at why.
