Conditions for survival in the manufacturing industry in VUCA era
Satoru Murakami
CEO Goal-System consultants Inc.,
Agenda, an expression of my basic philosophy-1
Preface
I have written 11 books so far, including the new book "A Book of Strengthening Manufacturing that Survive in Uncertain Times" published in March 2021, but unfortunately all my books are written in Japanese.
Now, I'm starting to translate the essence of my new book into English. This is the first time in this series, let’s explain my thoughts while thinking a little about the situation surrounding TOC.
Recently, I often hear the word VUCA. VUCA is a keyword that describes today's environment, which is extremely fast-changing, complex, ambiguous, and highly uncertain. In such a VUCA environment, I was seriously worried about how to respond as a consultant and what kind of solution should be provided to customers.
I have conducted and experienced many cases since I first commercialized TOC-based consulting in Japan in 1997. Hitachi Tool's TOC reform activities, famous for being quoted by Dr. Goldratt in the paper "Standing on the Shoulder of a Giant", and in 2007, a compilation of the recommendations of patient groups when formulating the Basic Law for Cancer Control, 2009 I have seen hundreds of projects such as medical reforms in Nara Prefecture in 2014 and work style reforms at Hitachi, Ltd. from 2016.
Based on that knowledge, I think the greatest advantage of TOC is that it is "pragmatic."In fact, TOC can respond almost accurately to the events and various problems that are actually visible in the so-called "The Goal" world. However, on the other hand, we do not have sufficient solutions as a method for invisible things, for example, "uncertainty" toward the future and "ambiguity" that human beings have. I will explain the details later, but the TOC method that he left behind applied for "variability" and "complexity" in VUCA only.
After his passed away in 2011, His colleagues tried various improvements within the TOC community,
but,
Psychological problems considering the "cognitive bias" of the human brain,
"Ambiguity" problem caused by organizational characteristics as a group,
The problem of "uncertainty" in how to handle future events,
How to "define" and "handle" these three areas is essential for VUCA's reform activities today, but the TOC industry has not even raised the issue.
And because of that, the TOC method seems to have everything, and when I try to use it, the explanations and preconditions are not enough, and in that sense, I think it is not very easy to use. Simply say, each TOC tool has clearly valid assumptions and conditions. However, in general, there are very few documents and materials that explain it properly, and there are many cases where the consultant does not understand it.
For example, when applying DBR to a manufacturing environment, "DBR has many successful cases in V-type and I-type environments, but few successful cases in A-type", I have never heard of such an explanation.
In the case of a project environment, what kind of project environment does CCPM envision, whether it is a construction industry, an individual design production environment, software development, or software development is package software development, SI, there are almost no people who clearly explain these things.
Also, in the TOC Thinking Process, I am good at "solving problems (pursuing and solving causes)" that analyze and solve "problems that are currently visible". But there is almost no explanation that "achievement-type problems" and "creative problem-solving" those issues for the future and new ones, are not good.
The conditions for applying management methods and improvement methods have quirks peculiar to the method and are not easy. That is why Dr. Goldratt wrote in his article "Standing on the shoulders of giants" how Henry Ford, Taiichi Ohno, and Eliyahu Goldratt thought and how each method was adapted to the changing environment.
As you know, people who should take over him today often replace it with doctrinal claims such as "Dr. Goldratt said". It is also argued that raising TOC to the realm of "science" is to ensure reproducibility. The barrier between science and method is not reproducibility, and even if the number of cases is created to ensure reproducibility, the method cannot be said to be science. The essence of science is "doubting of things", and the scientific attitude is "how to doubt things".
Next time, let's think a little about "doubt," "knowing," and "believing" from the perspective of science and religion.
